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[Also on Google Scholar]

To be submitted soon / in prep:


Afargan-Gerstman, et al, On the connection between the jet stream and high-impact, extreme storms in midlatitudes, in prep

Afargan-Gerstman, et al, "Quantifying the stratospheric influence on extreme winter storms in Europe and their associated damage and health impacts", in prep.

Afargan-Gerstman, Russo E., Büeler, B. and Domeisen, D.I.V., "Trends in extreme cold air outbreaks in a changing climate and the role of blocking", in prep.

Afargan-Gerstman, et al, "Asymmetry of the downward impact of the stratosphere in an idealized GCM", in prep.

Published papers:



Severino, L. G., Kropf, C. M., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Fairless, C., de Vries, A. J., Domeisen, D. I., & Bresch, D. N. (2024). Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24(5), 1555-1578.

Afargan-Gerstman, H., Büeler, B., Wulff, C.O., Sprenger M., and Domeisen, D.I.V., Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 231–249,, 2024.


Severino, L.G., Kropf, C.M., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Fairless, C., De Vries, A.J., Domeisen, D.I. and Bresch, D.N., "Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe". EGUsphere, pp.1-31 (preprint, 2023). 

Celebrating 10 years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and looking to the future", (S2S meeting report), Woolnough et al., (2023). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 


Afargan-Gerstman, H., Jiménez-Esteve, B., Domeisen, D.I.V., "On the Relative Importance of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Drivers for the North Atlantic Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events", Journal of Climate, no. 19 (2022): 2851-2865.

Karpechko, A. Y., Afargan‐Gerstman, H., Butler, A. H., Domeisen, D. I., Kretschmer, M., Lawrence, Z., Manzini, E., Sigmond, M., Simpson, I.R., Wu, Z. (2022). "Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models. Part 1: Inter‐Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity”. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, e2022JD036992.


Domeisen, D. I., White, C. J., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Muñoz, Á. G., Janiga, M. A., Vitart, F., ... & Tian, D. (2022). “Advances in the subseasonal prediction of extreme events: Relevant case studies across the globe”. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.


Polkova, I., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Domeisen, D. I. V., King, M. P., Ruggieri, P., Athanasiadis, P., Dobrynin, M., Aarnes, Ø., Kretschmer, M.  and Baehr, J. (2021) Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold-air outbreaks over the Barents Sea. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X.

Afargan-Gerstman, H., Polkova, I., Papritz, L., Ruggieri, P., King, M. P., Athanasiadis, P.,  Baehr, J., and Domeisen, D., D., "Stratospheric influence on marine cold air outbreaks in the North Atlantic", Weather and Climate Dynamics, 1(2), 541-553.


Gerstman H., Adam, O., (2020). "Nonlinear damping of ITCZ migrations due to Ekman ocean energy transport". Geophysical Research Letters, 47(5), e2019GL086445.

Afargan-Gerstman, H., Domeisen, D., ”Pacific modulation of the North Atlantic storm track response to sudden stratospheric warming events”, Geophysical Research Letters, 2020.


Polkova, I., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Domeisen, D., Ruggieri, P., Athanasiadis, P., King, M. and Baehr, J., Marine cold air outbreaks: prediction skill and preconditions, accepted for publication in CI2019, The 9th International Workshop on Climate Informatics, 2019.

2018 and earlier

Yuval, J., Afargan, H. and Kaspi, Y. (2018) ”The relation between the seasonal changes

in jet characteristics and the Pacific Midwinter Minimum in eddy activity”. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(18).

Afargan, H. and Kaspi, Y. (2017). ”A midwinter minimum in North Atlantic storm track intensity in years of a strong jet”. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(24).

Afargan-Gerstman, H., 2017. Thesis for the degree (Doctoral dissertation, Weizmann Institute of Science).

Afargan, H. and Gildor, H. (2015). ”The role of the wind in the formation of coherent eddies in the Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba”. Journal of Marine Systems, 142, 75-95.

Koren, I., Martins, J.V., Remer, L.A. and Afargan, H. (2008). ”Smoke invigoration versus inhibition of clouds over the Amazon”. Science, 321(5891), 946-949.



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