Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, PhD
Since January 2025, I am leading a research project as an Ambizione Fellow at the University of Bern, supported by a four-year fellowship from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). The goal of my research is to improve our understanding of midlatitude dynamics and predictability in present and future climates.
The goal of my current SNSF AMBIZIONE research project is to improve the prediction of extreme winter storms in Europe and the North Atlantic at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales - ranging from two weeks to two months.
​
​​​​​
​​​​​​​
News & Open positions
​​
-
*** NEW (March 2026): our BSc/MSc thesis projects at the Institute of Geography, University of Bern*** MSc Thesis Projects_2026 - all slides.pdf​​
​​
-
New open position (April 2026): student assistant for forecast data analysis (Institute of Geography, University of Bern)​
​​
-
April 2026: Simone Pellegrini joing the team at Uni Bern!​
​​
-
New paper submission: "Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in a Warmer Climate: Assessing Signal Robustness and Model Uncertainty"
​​
-
Convener of EGU26 session: "The dynamics of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in past, present and future climate"
​​
-
New Preprint: Do AI models predict storm impacts as accurately as physics-based models? A case study of the February 2020 storm series over the North Atlantic https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.01665
​​
-
"Stormtracks 2025 Workshop" a member of Science Organizing Committee (June 2025)
Email: hilla.gerstman@unibe.ch
Forecasting midlatitude storm impacts beyond current predictability limits
While advances in numerical weather prediction and the emergence of machine learning based forecasts have significantly improved short-term weather prediction, forecast accuracy rapidly decreases after only a few days. This presents a critical challenge for predicting high-impact storms. By using state-of-the-art idealized climate models, statistical post-processing and machine learning, as well as impact forecasting models, the project aims to identify key atmospheric factors and precursors that drive the frequency and intensity of mid-latitude storms. Quantifying and understanding these connections – from precursors to hazards and impacts – is vital for bridging the gap between weather and climate, and for enabling earlier warnings for society and for decision-makers in sectors such as emergency preparedness, public health, energy, and water management.
RESEARCH FOCUS
​
-
My research interests are mid-latitude weather and climate, storm track and jet stream dynamics, variability and predictability, extreme weather events (e.g., extreme extratropical cyclones, windstorms, marine and land cold air outbreaks, heatwaves) and their impacts, drivers of extreme weather in present and future climate.
-
Exploring the potential for improving the prediction skill of surface weather in mid-latitude and polar regions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S; beyond 10 days and up to three months) timescales.
-
I also have ongoing interest in understanding the impact of climate change on extratropical storms and windstorm damage over Europe using CMIP6 and a wide range of statistical tools and platforms.
-
Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and stratospheric impact on mid-latitude weather and climate, in particular the impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex events on extratropical storm track, jet stream and cold extremes.
CURRENT PROJECTS
-
Exploring the predictability of winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal re-forecasts
-
The downward impact of the stratosphere in current and future climates (my Marie Sklodowska-Curie research project: stratoIMPACT).
-
Winter windstorm impact in Europe in a changing climate
​
Supervision / co-supervision:
-
Alicia Engelmann (PhD candidate, University of Bern, started 04/2025)
-
Lara Mercier (MSc thesis project, ETH Zurich)​
-
Simone Pellegrini (BSc thesis project, University of Bern, started 03/2025)
-
Emma Hilgenstock (BSc thesis project, ETH Zurich)
-
Fabio Flütsch (BSc thesis project, ETH Zurich)
-
Alice Ferrini (BSc thesis project, ETH Zurich)
-
Ari Hölscher (BSc thesis project, ETH Zurich)
-
Yaara Schaaff (BSc thesis project, ETH Zurich)
Previous students:
-
Guorong Ling (MSc thesis, ETH Zurich; co-supervision with Prof. Moshe Armon, HUJI)
-
Luca Severino (MSc thesis, ETH Zurich; co-supervision with Prof. Daniela Domeisen, Prof. David Bresch)
Exploring how the downward impact of the stratosphere will change in future climate.
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie SkÅ‚odowska-Curie grant No 891514.
ABOUT ME
​​I have a PhD from the Weizmann Institute of Science, where I worked with Prof. Yohai Kaspi on the seasonal cycle of midlatitude storm tracks and the "Midwinter Suppression" of transient eddies in the North Pacific using idealised GCMs.
I am a recipient of the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (2020-2022) at ETH Zurich.
I did my postdoctoral research at the ETH Zürich, working with Prof. Dr. Daniela Domeisen in the group of Atmospheric Predictability.
I worked as a postdoctoral researcher as part the EU Horizon2020 research Project "Blue-Action" for understanding the impact of the Arctic of European weather and climate. In 2024, I was also affiliated with the University of Lausanne (UNIL), Switzerland, as a postdoc in the Atmospheric Process group.
​
Since 2025, I am an Ambizione research Fellow at the University of Bern, Switzerland.
​
I have teaching experience part of these MSc courses:
- Meteorology 3 (Fall, 2025)
- Weather and Climate Dynamics (Spring, 2023, 2024)
- Environmental Crisis and Societal Change (Spring, 2023)
EDUCATION
2012 - 2018
Ph.D. Weizmann Institute of Science
PhD in Atmospheric Dynamics.
In my PhD, I was working with Prof. Yohai Kaspi on mechanisms controlling the seasonal variability of mid-latitude storm tracks. We used both reanalysis data and an idealized GCM, in which we implemented a seasonal cycle to study the storm track response to variations in the strength and location of the jet stream. We also studied the midwinter suppression of the Pacific storm track, a major open research question in the field of Atmospheric Dynamics.
2007 - 2010
M.Sc. Weizmann Institute of Science
M.Sc. in Physical Oceanography.
2003 - 2007
B.Sc.
Tel Aviv University
B.Sc. in Geophysics, Atmospheric and Planetary Science